Data Mining & Projections

By Bob Bense, President & CEO, Superior Boat Repair & Sales

For the 2025 model year order commitment, I’m looking at all the data available to me to help me project my 2025 model year commitment with my boat brands. This includes three critical steps, which I’ll share with you now.

1. I’m looking over the rolling 12-month data from Wells Fargo for my territory for each of the boating lanes I participated in.

A.   E.g.: Ski / Wake, Runabout and Pontoon

B.   Are these boating lanes for my market growing, declining or neutral?

C.   I compare my market share to the manufacturer’s national market share. I’m I ahead, below or equal?

2. I look at my current inventory for each boat brand and my inventory turns.

A.   Are my inventory turns below 2? If so, and my YTD sales are behind in unit sales, I have too much inventory

B.   If my inventory turns are above 2 and my unit sales are ahead of last year, I may not have enough inventory
3. Once I have this data, I can determine what is the commitment for model year 2025 with each boat brand.

Below is an example to clarify my strategy and process.

Boat Brand A:

  • Current boat lane has decreased by 10%.
  • All units sold in the past 12-month period is 130 units.
  • National market share for this boat brand is 15.4%, so this equals 20 units for my market.
  • My local market share is 20%, so this equals 26 units.
  • Current 2024 inventory equals 20 units.
  • Based upon this sample information, and if my market stays equal for the next 12 months (doesn’t decrease or increase), I have about 80% of what I need for this brand in inventory for the next 12 months. Thus, I should only commit to six to eight units for 2025.

Share My Process with Brand Rep
Going through this exercise with the boat brand rep, helps them understand what my annual commitment for 2025 should be. Any decent boat brand will except this commitment. In this scenario it is much lower. You do this to create a collaborative relationship with superb communication and clearer expectations.

Data Mining & Projections by Bob Bense
Bob Bense

About the Author
Bob Bense and his wife Kathy started Superior Boat Repair & Sales in July of 2009 after a long career working for Nautique Boat Company. He grew up in a boating family and learned to water ski on Folsom Lake as a young boy, which helped to develop his passion for boating and water sports. When he’s not working at the dealership, Bob enjoys spending time with his family in Lake Tahoe and water skiing out on Folsom Lake, early in the mornings with his ski buddies. He also serves on the MRAA Board of Directors.