When we turn on the news these days, there is a lot of data being thrown at us. And for good reason. With all the speculation about what might happen in the COVID-19 economy, data is needed to help us sensibly navigate our current reality. It also grabs our attention, and the media knows it.

But as important and compelling as it is, data needs to be understood in the proper context. Take, for instance, recently reported data showing an 18-percent decline in new powerboat registrations in March 2020, as compared to the same time last year.

 

In normal times, registration data gives our industry a monthly pulse on how our industry is performing. It is invaluable and remains critical to understanding the trends in the market place at any point in time. This blog is not meant to question that.

 

However, when looking at recent registration data, it is important to note that of the 50 state offices that process boat registrations across the United States, only two — Georgia and Wyoming — are actually open to the public. Four others — Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire and Oklahoma — permit consumers to enter administrative offices on an appointment-only basis. The other 44 state offices, as well as countless municipal offices responsible for administering motorboat registrations, are closed to the public, offering only mail-in or online services.

 

 

44 of the 50 state offices that processed registrations are closed to the public, offering only mail-in and online registrations. 

 

 

As a regular practice, organizations that analyze state registrations comb through monthly data from “early-reporting” states, and the number of states reporting for any given monthly snapshot fluctuates on a regular basis, typically between 25 and 32 states. March 2020 early-reporting states totaled 22 in all, or about 42 percent of the U.S. boat market. Comparatively, February 2020 early-reporting state data was based on registrations from 30 states or about 61.5 percent of the market.

 

I am not disputing the accuracy of the new boat registrations that were reported. Nor would I argue that new boat sales haven’t been negatively affected — we have every reason to believe that boat sales would be impacted by the mandated closures of many marine businesses and the restrictions placed on the public in many states.

However, as the ability of states to keep up and accurately report registration data has been disrupted by closures and delays, the possibility of a temporary disconnect between boat registration data and new boat sales as a result of this pandemic is also part of the story we need to understand.

 

I spoke with dealers in each of the “appointment-only” states, and it sounds like there remain opportunities, albeit reduced, to get boat registrations processed. And even in states like Minnesota, where registration offices are closed to the public, some dealers have noted that they have a “secret way in” to the office that’s not available to the public.

 

Regardless, the decline in the availability of state government employees and offices to process registrations has undoubtedly impacted boat registration data, particularly when it is compared to the same month last year. During this time when our businesses and our government offices can be deemed “essential” or “non-essential,” it’s important to identify that such statistics don’t offer an apples-to-apples comparison and may be influenced to varying degrees on a state-by-state basis and on a month-by-month basis, depending on the status of each specific state office and their many satellite locations.

 

Although we researched and identified the status of each of the 50 state registration offices (see graphic), their actual operational capacity for processing registrations remains unclear. We know, for example, that the Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles was shut down on and off for weeks, dating back to mid-March, with some branches being unable to register private-sale boats. While the DMV has adjusted procedures, they are admitting that they are delayed.

 

We also identified that some states, like Kentucky, are taking steps to extend registration timelines so customers can use their boats while there are delays. Other states, like Colorado, are offering boaters the option to obtain another temporary registration permit from the dealership they purchased their boat from. In addition, agencies are moving to a larger emphasis on online and mail-in registrations. This, of course, could increase the already-existing lag time between purchase and boat registration as well.

 

It is reasonable to expect boat sales to be off of the pace of last year, as there are significant challenges for our dealers right now. Many dealerships are only partially open, at best, learning on the fly how to run a brick-and-mortar retail business out of individual employees’ homes and conducting boat sales by appointment only. Mix that with rising unemployment and serious economic concerns, and the playing field looks like a giant uphill battle.

 

While it’s clear that government office closures undoubtedly impact the flow of boat registrations, it’s difficult to ascertain the size of the overall impact and whether the reported numbers are better or worse than what’s actually happening out there. It may simply mean that there will be a larger-than-normal lag before registrations are processed, and we’ll need to understand that that’s part of our current registration analysis reality until shelter-at-home orders are lifted, social distancing guidelines relaxed and the economy regains a sense of normalcy.

 

Until then, MRAA will continue to look at boat sales trends through a variety of lenses, including a study that MRAA began fielding on Tuesday.