Econ 2012

Historically, I’ve been fairly poor at understanding economics. I
barely skated by in Econ 101 in college, and my collegiate-level
understanding of supply and demand was warped by the ever-increasing
demand for the libations of my classmates and the never-ending supply
flowing from the local taps.

The real world has taught me a lot
more about economics. And, thanks mostly to the Great Recession I’ve
become somewhat of a student of economics over the last few years. I’ve
done everything I can to seek out business magazine articles on the
economy, and the list of books I’ve read about the economy seems to grow
by the week.

It really got started when a friend recommended
“Ahead of the Curve,” an HBR Press book written by Joseph H. Ellis. It’s
subtitled as a Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market
Cycles. It was a great book, and I had plans to use the concepts to
develop some forecasting tools for the marine industry. That is, up
until the recession threw those market cycles a curve. It’s a great
book, though, and I’d highly recommend it.

In late 2009, I picked
up a book by Harry S. Dent Jr., at the recommendation of John Spader
over at Spader Business Management. Dent had spoken to some of Spader’s
20 Groups in the past and had done well in predicting economic success
through his books “The Roaring 2000s” and “The Next Great Bubble Boom.” I
followed Spader’s advice and picked up Dent’s book, “The Great
Depression Ahead,” which was written in 2008.

It
was a tough read, particularly because I, like many others, like to
believe in a brighter future, and this book does not predict that. But I
was fascinated by Dent’s predictions and how he used demographic trends
to forecast. I enjoyed it so much that I picked up Dent’s most recent
book — what might seem from the title to be a replica of the previous
book — called “The Great Crash Ahead.” But this is another fascinating
book that outlines not only the inherent problems with our economy, but
predicts what is to come and how you can profit from it.

So
infatuated was I with the economic perspectives, that I picked up
another book that Spader recommended: “Aftershock. Protect Yourself and
Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown.” It’s another fascinating,
if even more negative, overview of what may be to come from our
economy.

I realize how “doomsday” these books sound, and while I’m
not writing about them because I particularly believe that their grim
predictions will all come true, but rather because I’d much rather be
educated about the potential pitfalls ahead than to be blindsided by
them. I hope that you feel the same way.

I finished that book over Thanksgiving, and I picked up another book, a
recommendation from Bob Williams over at Marine Five Star Dealership
Certification: “Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How it
Changes Everything.” Again, a fascinating (and educational) book on the
economy. I’m just over halfway through it, and I can tell you that it’s
another book I would recommend.

What’s interesting is that all of
these books provide different perspectives. In fact, of these last
three, one suggested that our economy is headed for deflation, another
said that we’re headed for inflation, and the most recent is suggesting
that our economy could go either way.

In any case, an education on
what might be around the next corner is always valuable, no matter if
you got that education at collegiate tuition rates or for the cost of a
few books on Amazon.